FA Cup Predictions & Picks
Model-driven picks for the FA Cup, where Premier League clubs enter in the third round and face sides from across English football. Every signal shows its probability, the market, and the odds.
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How FA Cup picks are made
FA Cup signals come from the same expected-goals model as every other soccer pick: team ratings built from chances created and conceded, adjusted for opponent strength and home advantage, then converted into a probability for every market.
A pick is only published when the model's probability is meaningfully higher than the probability implied by the odds. When no match clears that bar, this page stays empty rather than filling up with weak selections.
Who builds the model
The models are developed and trained in-house by a team of mathematicians working across China, the United States and the United Kingdom, on our own GPU cluster: eight NVIDIA B200 accelerators with 1.44 TB of GPU memory.
The full record report sets out that infrastructure alongside every published pick and its result.
Frequently asked questions
Do you pick every the FA Cup match?
No. The model prices every the FA Cup fixture, but a signal is only published when its probability is meaningfully higher than the odds imply. Some rounds produce several picks, some produce none.
How does the model handle FA Cup upsets?
Cup ties between clubs from different divisions carry more uncertainty than league games, especially when favourites rotate. The model prices that uncertainty and publishes only where its probability still clears the odds.
18+ only. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and past performance does not predict future results. Bet only what you can afford to lose — responsible gambling resources.
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